Chinese cross-border e-commerce entrepreneur Andy Guo has just opened two warehouses covering a total of 5,000 square metres (53,820 sq ft) on the outskirts of Moscow.
He said the move was not about addressing logistical bottlenecks, but preparing his business for a potential geopolitical shift that could reshape his fastest-growing yet most uncertain overseas market if Russia and Ukraine reach a peace deal.
US President Donald Trump has continued to push for the end of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin accepted some US proposals aimed at ending the war in Ukraine and was prepared to keep working to find a compromise.
“Many Chinese exporters are now closely monitoring and debating whether a peace deal can be reached,” Guo said.
Also the founder of Waimaojia, a business platform on WeChat that has attracted thousands of exporters focused on the Russian market, he said the prospect of an end to the war brought both opportunities and uncertainties for many Chinese exporters.
Many Chinese exporters expect the first wave of post-war demand in Russia to come from infrastructure, followed by a quick rebound in consumer spending once payment and delivery restrictions caused by sanctions are relaxed.
Guo’s warehouses will be used to store construction hardware, home goods and other items, and what he calls “recovery and rehabilitation” products.
“Russia is offering strong subsidies for newborns and childcare, so the maternal and infant sector may recover first,” Guo said. “Post-war trauma recovery and wellness, such as auxiliary medical and healthcare equipment, could also emerge as new growth areas.”
The same was true for the Ukrainian market, he added.
Other companies are also betting on reconstruction.
William Hong, who manufactures hi-tech water and electricity meters in southern China’s Guangdong province, recently established companies with local partners in multiple cities in Kazakhstan. He said they gave him a foothold in Central Asia and a channel for re-entering the Russian and Ukrainian markets in the future.
Foreign capital that pulled out won’t return easily – it would take several years to reach pre-war levels
Li Qing, Shenzhen-based auto parts exporter
“This acts as a firewall, helping us to downplay our identity and operate as a local enterprise,” he added.
Some say that even if the international community ends sanctions, leading to the reopening of the Russian market, Western companies will struggle to replace the supply chain network and advantages that China has built over the past few years. “Foreign capital that pulled out won’t return easily – it would take several years to reach pre-war levels,” Li Qing, an auto parts exporter based in Shenzhen, Guangdong, said.
Liu Chen, a veteran sales manager with experience promoting automobile, medical equipment and machinery sales in parts of the former Soviet Union and other emerging markets, said high-end equipment would be a “blue ocean” – a market with minimal competition and vast growth opportunities – if a peace deal was reached.
“Russia aims to develop aerospace, machinery manufacturing and new energy sectors, where demand is surging,” Liu said. “Yet Europe and the US won’t supply them with high-precision equipment, automation systems or smart sensors. These segments will still rely primarily on China.”
Qi Bin, a sales manager for medical equipment companies targeting the Russian market, said Chinese brands dominated the mid-to-low-end medical market.
“If Western carmakers return, competition may shift in some sectors, but the medical supply chain would remain stable or surge for Chinese brands – except for premium devices,” he said.
Western sanctions imposed on Russia since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 led to large supply gaps in the Russian market that have been filled by waves of Chinese exporters. But the “window of opportunity” is now being squeezed by fierce competition among them.
With a population of over 140 million, the Russian market was now saturated with Chinese sellers, and price wars were escalating, Guo said. Meanwhile, issues like logistics delays, payment disruptions and higher barriers to market access continued to challenge Chinese exporters.
Uncertainties also loom large over Ukraine’s reconstruction and resulting opportunities for Chinese firms.
Peter Zhu, a project manager at a new energy infrastructure firm in China’s northernmost Heilongjiang province, said his company had not yet included Ukraine or surrounding regions in its plans.
“While reconstruction opportunities appear vast, the order and distribution of benefits remain highly uncertain,” he said. “We cannot fully manage the risks, so our focus remains on countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative.”
Others worry that once European and American companies re-enter the Russian market, the commercial ecosystem could be driven more by political forces than by price or efficiency.
“Given Trump’s attitude, American companies could very possibly enter Russia after a peace deal,” Liu said. “As for European companies, the outlook is less certain.”
Guo said that while peace was only a possibility, “it merits early preparation”.
“But everything will depend on how order and interests are redistributed after that,” he said.