It’s the May Day holiday in much of the world today and it’s generally a great month for workers getting in paid in US dollars. May tends to be strong for the dollar.
- Strongest month of the year for the Dollar Index
- Weakest month for EUR/USD
- Second-worst month for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY
- AUD/CAD is particularly weak, softest month by far
- Second-strongest month for copper
- Strongest month for oil, though certainly skewed by the massive percentage gain (+88%) in May 2020 (note the reversal higher today). It also tends to be a very volatile month for oil
- The first week of May is generally the strongest for stocks while the second week is the weakest
- Middling month for stock markets overall
The main pattern is US dollar strength and the turn of the calendar comes after a four-month swoon in the Dollar Index. Even a small relative bounce here would be a decent monthly gain.